Catastrophic Success

Alexander Downes, Associate Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, compiles all instances of regime change around the world over the past two centuries.  In relying upon an impressive data set, Downes shows that regime change increases the likelihood of civil war and violent leader removal.  Furthermore, regime changes fail to reduce the probability of conflict between intervening states and their targets. Downes urges regime change to be reserved for exceptional cases and interveners must realize that these changes instigate a new period of uncertainty and conflict that impedes their interests from being realized.